JD Edwards present state

JD Edward’s customers and consultants have been trying to figure out Oracle’s intentions for quite some time now. To be specific, the whole JDE/Fusion debate began in 2005 and continues to date, as Oracle continues to support JDE with Applications Unlimited while ramping up the release of Fusion and promoting it as a cloud-based, long-term replacement for JDE, PeopleSoft and other ERP systems in Oracle’s stable.

Perhaps it may be better at this stage to provide some background first, and then we can go look into the crystal ball to define what the future has in store for JDE.

JD Edwards History

JD Edwards dates all the way back to 1997. PeopleSoft acquired it in 2003, and then was itself acquired by Oracle in 2005. At that time, to reassure customers of all the different brands of ERP and CRM systems they now owned, Oracle launched Applications Unlimited to provide software upgrades and long term support even after the launch and release of Fusion applications.

True to their word, Oracle has done a pretty good job of maintaining and enhancing the JDE brand with regular upgrades. They are now providing “dot” upgrades for JDE (as in 9.1, 9.2, and so on). With Oracle standing by their commitments and Fusion still in the box, the discussion was largely academic.

But not anymore, because Fusion was released in mid-2011 and this puts JDE customers and consultants on an inexorable path towards Fusion. The primary question now is what period Oracle has in mind when it says unlimited support will continue for JDE, PeopleSoft and Oracle e-Business Suite customers.

JD Edwards Performance

As a matter of fact, what’s happening right now can be understood from Oracle’s latest quarterly financial results, which shows surprisingly lackluster revenue from new software licensing. Analysts say it may be because Oracle is sending mixed signals with Fusion apps and Applications Unlimited on parallel tracks – Customers are holding back on buying old products and Fusion has not yet had enough time to establish itself.

So far, we have seen a gentle persuasion strategy towards their customers in adopting their own cloud apps in the commodity segment such as Fusion CRM and HCM in co-existence. This may add complexities in the interim period till a final stable model evolves.

Experts predict that this situation may continue this entire year. Oracle will convince a few more JDE customers to switch to Fusion in 2013 and 2014. But the real exodus is unlikely to begin until 2015, when key Fusion modules will be released and attract hundreds more JDE customers to switch.

The process will continue from 2016 through 2018, at which time Fusion will be fully operational. This is when new sales of JDE applications could hit rock bottom. Of course, this does not mean the end of the world for JDE consultants since it will take much longer for JDE to be completely phased out. But it may happen, somewhere between 2025 and 2030! – anyone’s guess.     

There are a few unknowns in the mix here. SAP may be able to take advantage of Oracle’s “in-between” period and capture a bigger market share. If Oracle decides to sell off JD Edwards, this could give it a new lease of life. But at this stage, what JDE is looking at is probably a long-drawn out march to the unknown.

Author: Consultant at CIONNE.com.

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